Wasp Watch - methodology and its weaknesses

Methodology

The measurement of insect sting activity is a notoriously complex and difficult task - not least because across the UK insect sting levels will change not merely from region to region, or town to town, but even between next door houses. Wasps and bees find the right microclimate and breeding conditions and then heavily populate those microsites whilst steadfastly avoiding other areas that do not offer such attractive conditions.

WaspWatch presents an overall picture for the UK as a whole and does so by monitoring the visitors to its sister website, the majority of whom are from the UK and many of whom are looking for a remedy or information arising from an insect sting - usually wasp or bee. Background activity levels are evident in December, January and February of people who are just interested in the subject and amount to around 3,000 for each of those months. The tenfold increase in activity in the busy summer months represents in broad terms the increase in activity of wasps and bees during those warm insect friendly months.

Limitations of Statistical Data

Geographical Sample - we calculate that the for the year as a whole the site typically has 70% of visitors from the UK , 21% from North America, and the balance of 9% from approximately 85 other countries. Whilst the UK therefore dominates the results it is not the sole source of sting activity and we will be looking to some way of filtering non-UK results out of the system in the future.

Insect Sting Activity - not every searcher arrives on the website as a result of an insect sting - however the majority do and the top 15 terms all contain the term "sting" and account for 56% of traffic. In a typical year 200,000 searchers arrive at the site using in excess of 5,000 different search terms but we would estimate that some 80-85% of searchers arrive at the site because of a sting incident. When there are comparatively few stings in January and February the traffic levels are some 3,000 per month - indicating a non-sting prompted visitor rate of about 18% for the year as a whole.

Underlying Web Activity - more and more people with web access means that each year more people will have access to the website and this would indicate that the site should see an underlying trend upwards in activity. In order to mitigate this to some degree we have rebased each year with January = 100 so that we can see trends within years as well as compare them meaningfully to other years.

 

 

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